China's Quest for Arctic Resources: Implications for the US and Its Indo-Pacific Partners

Source: South China Morning Post

Dear Readers,

It's been a while since our last post, but in recent months Chinasresourcerisks.com has been generating new content for you on regional responses to China's interest in Arctic resources and collaboration with Russia. This is thanks to a project with the East-West Center that examines how US Indo-Pacific partners (Japan, the Republic of Korea, India, and Singapore) view Sino-Russian cooperation in the Arctic.

Despite Sanctions, Sino-Russian Arctic Relations Warm

Although sanctions imposed on Russia since 2022 created some new challenges to Sino-Russian collaboration in the Arctic and put some planned joint projects on hold, in fact the war in Ukraine overall has given new impetus to cooperation between China and Russia in the Arctic in areas that potentially impact their joint development of Arctic resources.

• Much of the shipping traffic along the Northern Sea Route (NSR--the waterway above Russia's Arctic coast)—more than 90% in 2023—is from Russia to China, with crude oil accounting for 70% of the cargo, iron ore another 15.5% and for now LNG just 3.4%.

• Rosatom, the Russian nuclear authority and the state corporation that serves as operator of the NSR, and the PRC Ministry of Transport agreed to form a

  subcommission on the NSR to expand Chinese use of the transit corridor.

• China and Russia have been involved in efforts to improve polar navigation, through collaboration by their satellite networks (GLONASS and Beidou) and the Polar Express undersea cable to be built by Russia in 2026 with Chinese fiber optic cable.

• A new Hong Kong-registered firm, Hainan Yangpu Newnew Shipping Co. Ltd., partnered for NSR service with Russia’s GlavSevmorput (a subsidiary of Rosatom) and a Russian logistical company, Torgmoll. The line (infamously involved in the severing of the Balticconnector cables in October 2023) sails from Shanghai to Arkhangelsk, from which containers are shipped south in Russia by the Arctic Express freight train.

• The Chinese Coast Guard signed an agreement with Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB in Russian) facilitating Sino-Russian collaboration against terrorism, illegal migration, narcotics trafficking, and illegal fishing, but also paving the way for joint exercises in the NSR.

Where's the risk for China? Closer ties with Russia in the Arctic, a region that is important to sustaining the Russian economy, only compounds perceptions in Europe of China's support for Russian aggression in Ukraine. A series of recent Sino-Russian military exercises on the fringes of the Arctic in the spring and summer of 2024 gives further credence to this view and complicates Beijing's aim to engage with European Arctic states.

New Arctic Risks for the US and its Indo-Pacific Partners?

The US Department of Defense (DoD) 2024 Arctic Strategy highlights China’s activities in the Arctic at a time of deepening Sino-Russian collaboration in the region.

In my Occasional Paper for the East-West Center project, I argue that the US needs

to find new pathways to engage Indo-Pacific partners in the Arctic. Although the US has a global lens on the Arctic—we have a coastline on the North American Arctic via Alaska,

and are engaged with the European Arctic via NATO, for Japan, the ROK, Singapore and India, however, participation in the NSR has been their primary gateway to the Arctic. With deepening Sino-Russian collaboration in the NSR and sanctions imposed on Russia, it is timely for the US (and Canada) to explore greater cooperation with Indo-Pacific partners in technology development and domain awareness (especially satellite communications), polar science and education.

The East-West Center (EWC) project involved a series of virtual dialogues with Indo-Pacific Arctic experts and publications in the Asia-Pacific Bulletin. (EWC is a national educational institution that fosters better understanding and relations between the US and Asia.)

Dr. Rebecca Pincus, director of the Polar Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, writes "The prospect of deepening cooperation between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Russian Federation (Russia) in the Arctic is an important question mark and challenge for the United States and its allies in the Arctic region and beyond."

Experts from Japan, the Republic of Korea, India, and Singapore discussed their country's perspective on this new challenge to their Arctic interests and Indo-Pacific security more broadly.

Sakiko Hataya, Research Fellow at the Ocean Policy Research Institute of Japan's Sasakawa Peace Foundation, states that "Despite the complications and tensions surrounding Arctic cooperation at the moment, Japan is committed to remaining an active and increasingly more prominent advocate for scientific endeavor, multinational collaboration, and sustainability in Arctic affairs."

Dr. Young Kil Park of the Korea Maritime Institute views Sino-Russian collaboration in the Arctic in the broader context of Indo-Pacific security, especially in the Korean Peninsula. He emphasizes that "The potential for a weakened competitive edge in Arctic shipping, missed opportunities in infrastructure development, and a more volatile security environment in Northeast Asia are key concerns for South Korea."

Captain Anurag Bisen (retd.), now a Senior Fellow at India's Vivekananda International Foundation, details India's aim to engage more in the Arctic and argues that "India's strategic interests lie in diversifying Russia's partnerships away from China, offering alternatives in markets, finance, manpower, and technology."

Dr. Hema Nadarajah, Program Manager for Southeast Asia at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, calls attention to the growing geopolitical complexity of the Arctic due to deepening Sino-Russian relations and growing US-China tensions. She points out that, "The deepening collaboration between China and Russia in the Arctic raises concerns among some Arctic stakeholders, including Singapore, regarding its potential impact on regional governance and security. While economic cooperation is crucial for the development of Arctic resources, it must be balanced with environmental preservation and respect for the rights of indigenous communities."