Upside Down at the Top of the World? Asia Society Dialogue Sets the Record Straight
Key Takeaways from a Discussion on Arctic Geopolitics
It's been a head-spinning few weeks in US Arctic policy. Just one year ago Esther McClure, then the US Department of Defense Director of Arctic and Oceans Policy, emphasized the importance of US allies in defending US security and economic interests at a time when Russia's aggression in Ukraine has increased strategic competition in the region. Today the Trump Administration is questioning the importance of the NATO alliance, picking a trade fight with Canada, coveting Greenland, downplaying climate risks, and seeking a reset with Russia--positions that don't just contradict the Biden Administration's 2022 National Strategy for the Arctic, but also the first Trump Administration's own Arctic Strategy.
A recent Asia Society Asia Policy Institute dialogue on Arctic geopolitics with Lyle Morris (Asia Society), Jo Inge Bekkevold (Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies/Norwegian Defence University College), Katarzyna Zysk (Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies) and myself (WEAI, Columbia) provides some clarity about the enduring security concerns in the region and the continued importance of US cooperation with NATO allies.
The complete event video can be found here: https://asiasociety.org/video/changing-geopolitics-china-and-russia-arctic
Here are some of the main takeaways from our conversation:
Importance of NATO Cooperation in the Arctic. Close coordination between the US and NATO allies has helped limit China's influence in the Arctic. China is not an Arctic nation and the Arctic is at the periphery of the US-China strategic rivalry.
China's Importance to Russia in the Arctic. Since the full-scale war in Ukraine, China has become an even more important economic partner for Russia in the Arctic. Russia and China are working together more closely in managing the Northern Sea Route and their coast guards have begun collaborating. They have been cooperating in satellite technologies for Arctic navigation.
Russia's Arctic Military Buildup. Russian military expansion in the Arctic is both offensive and defensive. The war in Ukraine has not diminished Russia's air and maritime capabilities and their threat to NATO forces.
Impact of the War on Ukraine. The Sino-Russian partnership was growing closer before 2014. The end of the war in Ukraine is unlikely to diminish Sino-Russian collaboration in the Arctic or reduce the Russian military buildup in the region as Russia prepares for a broader conflict with the West. "Reverse Nixon" strategies of engaging with Russia to create a wedge between Moscow and Beijing are a misreading of history and unlikely to be effective.
Hybrid Activities. Russia's has been increasing hybrid activities in the Baltic region at the same time China is expanding port investments in northern Europe. This is a cause for concern as Sino-Russian strategic collaboration against western interests increases.
Russia is the Gatekeeper for China in the Arctic. Russia remains the gatekeeper for China's ability to invest in the Russian Arctic and develop shipping along the Northern Sea Route, though China seeks to play a greater role in Arctic governance.
China's Military Power in the Arctic. China's ability to project military power in the Arctic depends on its cooperation with Russia, thus far confined to exercises in the North Pacific Arctic and the Barents Sea. These exercises have been increasing in frequency and scope.
Strategic Partnership with China. Russia has made a political decision to develop a strategic partnership with China, but the Russian military still prepares for a China contingency. In the Arctic, Russia continues to seek additional economic partners beyond China. Despite some limits to the partnership, there are strong domestic factors keeping them together and wedge strategies are unlikely to weaken it.
Northern Sea Route. There are many obstacles to developing the Northern Sea Route for shipping. Northeastern China has more to gain from this route than southern Chinese ports which are closer to Strait of Malacca and Persian Gulf shipping routes. The opening of a transpolar navigation route would reduce the need for Sino-Russian cooperation in the Arctic.
Where's the risk? Above all in the changing Arctic environment--the National Snow and Ice Center reported record low ice in February 2025. At a time when a concerted effort to protect the region's fragile ecosystems and develop a path to sustainable development is increasingly urgent, a commitment to shared norms among the Arctic states is ever more elusive. China may be seeking a place at the table in developing the rules of a changing Arctic, but the current state of governance is fragile indeed and not just because of Chinese probing and increased activity. Arctic exceptionalism--the view of the region as a distinctive zone of peace-- now appears to be a myth in light of the regional security concerns engendered by Russian expansionism in Ukraine and related hybrid activities in the Arctic region. The Trump Administration's about-face on many key assumptions of European security--not to mention the status of Greenland--only adds to the climate of uncertainty in an already rattled region.
Commentaires